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HavanaJournal.com: Cuba Politics

Hurricanes forcing political changes in Cuba?

Posted October 15, 2008 by publisher in Cuba Politics.
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New America Media | Louis E.V. Nevaer

Six weeks after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike ravaged the island nation, efforts to prevent famine in isolated communities are forcing rapid-fire political changes. For more than a month, Mexico, Russia and Venezuela have been sending aid; now 68 other countries have joined the humanitarian effort, as well as 12 international agencies. Raul Castro had, up to now, refused the aid, arguing that spies disguised as humanitarian workers would infiltrate Cuba. That concern, in the wake of human suffering, has been cast aside; the $51 million USD in aid is desperately needed, particularly in Pinar del Rio and the city of Cinefuegos.

This comes two days after Cuba’s ambassador to Mexico, Manuel Aguilera de la Paz, acknowledged there were food shortages throughout the island nation, although he was adamant that there would not be famine.

As reports in Mexico, Spain and on Cuba-based blogs continue to document the deteriorating situation on the island nation, Cuba’s ambassador was forced to make public statements in Mexico City.

Ambassador Aguilera de la Paz conceded there were “limitations” that required “reductions in the diet” of the Cuban people, and “widespread shortages of some foodstuffs,” but he denied there was famine or the possibility of famine. The ambassador assured reporters that in Cuba there was “an egalitarian distribution system for food that guaranteed that everyone has access to the minimum food to allow for subsistence and survival.”



Concerns, however, surfaced that supplies are running low, and that Cuba is preparing the Cuban people for “a difficult winter.” Mexican and Venezuelan humanitarian assistance continues to flow into Havana, but reports indicate that damage to infrastructure has resulted in the inability to reach isolated communities, where stories of scarcity and hunger continue to be reported.

As Cuba and Haiti struggle with the human misery left behind by hurricanes Gustav and Ike, Mexican Navy ships have been sent to both countries with humanitarian aid. The Mexican Navy vessel, Papaloapan, left Veracruz port bound first for Havana with food, medicine and other supplies, before continuing to Port au Prince, the Haitian capital.

The Papaloapan is equipped with a working hospital, and it will provide medical assistance to Haiti as needed.
 
In the five weeks since Cuba and Haiti were struck by these hurricanes, damage to each country’s infrastructure was so extensive that distribution and communication to smaller communities remains difficult, if not impossible. Despite reassurances from Cuban diplomats in Mexico City, reports of hunger in the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio continue to make their way to the outside world: Food prices have risen in Havana between 50 and 100%, rationing has been decreed by the government, and Cubans have been warned to prepare for a difficult winter.

Reports of famine were substantiated by Cubans intercepted by the Mexican Navy attempting to cross the Yucatan Channel from Pinar del Rio to the resorts of Isla Mujeres and Cancun.

The Mexican Navy has long feared that an uncontrolled exodus of Cubans across the Yucatan Channel would precipitate a crisis similar to what occurred in 1997 when thousands of Albanians crossed the Adriatic Sea and the Italian Navy had to rescue hundreds of refugees.

In 2007 more than 11,000 Cubans illegally entered Mexico, almost all seeking to make it to the U.S. border and seek political asylum. This exodus has been fueled by human traffickers who operate safe houses in the Mexican resorts of Cancun and Isla Mujeres. “The reason why people are willing to risk their lives to leave Cuba [by attempting to reach Mexico] is the lack of hope and expectations,” Sean Murphy, the United States consul general in Havana, told the New York Times, in October 2007.

This exodus has increased dramatically since Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, forcing two major political changes. First, Cuba and Mexico announced last week a new migratory deal. Whereas before Mexican policy was to detain Cubans illegally in Mexico, fine them for not having proper tourist documents (the fine was about $80 USD), and giving them 30 days to leave Mexico (which many did by hopping on a bus to the U.S.-Mexico border, then crossing into the U.S. to seek political asylum); Mexico has now agreed that Cubans detained for entering Mexico illegally will be returned to Cuba. This is an effort to stop the explosion of Cubans illegally entering Mexico as a way of reaching the U.S.



The purpose is to deter Cubans from risking their lives crossing the Yucatan Channel if they know they are likely to be returned to Cuba if caught, and to interfere with the thriving business of smuggling Cubans. (Cuba has long complained that the “Miami Mafia” is operating human trafficking operations from the Mexican resorts of Cancun and Isla Mujeres.) This past spring and summer 9 Cubans in Merida and Cancun were found shot : law enforcement linked the victims with groups of smugglers who were operating safe houses for Cubans crossing the Yucatan Channel.
 
In 2007, about 11,000 Cubans entered the U.S. from Mexico; this year the figures are expected to be 19,000 Cubans.

Mexican officials want to avoid loss of life on the high seas, as occurred in April when a raft with twelve Cubans drifted into the Gulf of Mexico. Two died, 2 were lost at sea and 8 survivors were airlifted to a hospital near New Orleans after being rescued by the crew of the tanker Eos.

The second development on the diplomatic front occurred this weekend when Cuba and the European Union announced plans to normalize diplomatic relations, which were severed in June 2003 when the EU sought to punish Cuba for the arrest of political dissidents. The diplomatic rapprochement is crucial to facilitating humanitarian aid to Cubans.

There is a sense of urgency as government officials in Mexico City-Havana-Madrid work to reach political agreement to help Cuba in the weeks ahead, the specter of severe food shortages this fall and winter are now accompanied by the threat of disease. to prevent the shortage of food to be compounded by disease, Dengue Fever.

The disease, spread by mosquitoes, is now spreading throughout the ravaged provinces of Cienfuegos and Pinar del Rio. “We are going to develop in the next days of October a campaign through the CDR [neighborhood Committees for the Defense of the Revolution] throughout the entire country, a health campaign against the conditions that allow the spread of Aedes aegypti [Dengue Fever],” Luis Estruch, the Vice-Minister of Health told reporters this weekend.

There are no guarantees that these political efforts – $51 million in aid are expected to reach only 135,000 Cuban – will be enough. And while the new migratory agreement is an attempt to stop human trafficking across the Yucatan Channel by discouraging Cubans to risk their lives, there is hope that once Cuban officials meet with EU diplomats in Madrid today and then in Paris on Thursday more rapid assistance will be forthcoming. In a measure of the sense of urgency, Spain announced Tuesday, October 14, the emergency release of $40 million USD for reconstruction work. Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced he would travel to Cuba in early 2009 to assess the situation.

What this means for Raul Castro’s administration is unclear, since the political consequences of this humanitarian crisis in Cuba remains a great unknown.

Nevaer is the author of NAFTA’S Second Decade: Assessing Opportunities in the Mexican and Canadian Markets.

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Member Comments

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On October 17, 2008, Cubana wrote:

A chap by the name of Water Lippmann, posting from Havana has left a comment on the original article stating that the entire article is false. However, he gives no specific rebuttals of the article’s claims, just a load of anti-American ranting. His website is here: http://www.walterlippmann.com/

Readers can draw their own conclusions, as I have.

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On October 17, 2008, manfredz wrote:

I forwarded it to a friend in Cuba who also rebuffed that Cuba is facing a humanitarian crisis.

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On October 17, 2008, publisher wrote:

Thanks for the feedback. People in Havana may not know about the other parts of the countrty since communication and transportation are limited and certainly the Cuban government is not going to tell the entire country how bad things really are there. After all, they need those tourists to come down and spend money.

Walter Lippmann is a rabid pro-Castro anti-Embargo (even anti-US) communist or about as close as you can come to one as I have come to know by his own words.

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On October 17, 2008, Anatasio wrote:

Havana was actually hit quite hard by Ike. Obviously not as hard as other parts of the island but it has been devastating throughout. Speaking for my family, they lost their entire plot of farm land and thus have nothing on which to subsist. Of course, we sent them some emergency funds but our conversations have focused on how absolutely awful the situation is right now. “Critical” was the word she kept using, so, I’m not sure how anyone can justify attempts to blow off just how devastating this storm was to the island. The situation is dire and right now, we’ve got to support our families in any way we can.

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On October 17, 2008, publisher wrote:

Do they believe that Raul or Fidel will save them?

After all these years, what can they do differently other than wait… for something.

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On October 17, 2008, Anatasio wrote:

My impression is that folks are relying on each other in the aftermath. Raul lost a lot of points with A) his lack of an appearance for a while after the hurricane and B) his refusal of so much of the hurricane aid (althought that is finally starting to change, thank God). I don’t believe anyone gives a “rat’s ass” about either Fidel or Raul right now, just focusing on survival. What scares me is the fact that the agricutural sector (already not as strong as it once was), was left in shambles, decimated. Spekaing with them has really broken our hearts.

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On October 17, 2008, publisher wrote:

It is very sad and I know many Cubans have been in survival mode for decades but Fidel was always there to tell them that everything would be okay and that the evil Empire was to blame.

Don’t they expect the government to save them? I don’t mean that in a derogatory way but do they feel like they have to speak out now or is everything still locked down by the CDRs?

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On October 17, 2008, Anatasio wrote:

Well, the government has of course worked hard ( I hate to say it ) in the aftermath of the hurricane, cleaning up streets, delivering potable water in trucks, etc. I’ll give them that but, this witch hunt that has left the agros largely empty was a really stupid move. Of course they know the government will provide some relief but they also realize that relief will be meager at best - in much the same way that Cuban rations are meager at best. Is everything still locked down by the CDR’s? Well, nothing has really changed with the way the chivatos operate as far as I’ve seen.

I don’t know about all this talk of revolt, etc in the storm’s aftermath. When human beings are completely absorbed by simple survival, it’s hard to organize any sort of opposition. A bit too busy with other things - if you know what I mean.