So, Fidel Castro could not show his people the respect and thanks they deserve at today’s May Day celebration. Unless Fidel is gravely ill, I don’t think he should be forgiven for not making an appearance or AT LEAST addressing the Cuban people in a written letter.
He wrote a letter last night about Posada and the US, a theme that is emerging with Fidel…meaningless letter writing on international issues. Either Fidel is not up to speed on Cuban politics or is being guided to stay out of Cuban politics.
Either way, since Fidel did not make an appearance today, he is dead politically. I am sure of that now. After today the Cuban people are not going to wait around too much longer for Fidel. I would guess that TODAY WAS THE DAY in their minds and if Fidel can’t show up for this event nine months after his surgery, he’s not coming back.
Now, what about Raul?
I think Fidel has to die or be out of the picture for several more months before Raul can make any changes in Cuba. For the sake of this post, I will assume little changes between now and May 20 (Independence Day), August 13 (Fidel’s Birthday) and this Fall. If things pretty much stay the same come September, I see Raul starting to make major changes and perhaps opening up the economy and/or releasing political prisoners and/or being proactive with engaging the US.
So, I don’t expect too much to happen until Fidel dies or is out of the picture for several more months. Things happen slowly in Cuba but, for some reason, I get a sense that something bigger than Fidel’s death could happen. Could be Raul’s death. Could be an uprising that is publically crushed bringing international pressure on Raul and they Raul makes several bad decisions that take him out of office. Funny thing is NO ONE KNOWS what’s going to be the catalyst of change in Cuba. The exiles don’t know. Bush doesn’t know. The Cuban people don’t know.
What’s next for Fidel? Nothing. More of the same, letter writing, radio talks with Chavez, photo op meetings with foreign dignitaries.
What’s next for Raul? He waits. He is probably planning for the future without Fidel but I don’t think he can act on any plans until September.
What’s next for Cuba? Same shit different day unfortunately.
If Fidel or Raul dies before September, all bets are off.