I hate making predictions, especially about change in Cuba but these are three dates to watch coming up in Cuba.
July 26 2007, a national holiday in Cuba, will mark the one year anniversary of the date that Fidel Castro was last seen in public.
July 31, 2007 was the date Fidel Castro announces that he was going into the hospital.
August 13 2007 will be Fidel Castro’s 81st birthday and the country usually celebrates it.
Will Fidel Castro make a personal public appearance on any of these dates?
I say no.
He and Raul are “in the zone” right now. Everything seems to be quiet in Cuba right now. There is no massive unrest, no wide spread public outcry for change. Everyone knows nothing will change until absent President Fidel Castro is dead.
So, whether Fidel can actually make a personal public appearance is not the issue. The issue is now to maintain the “same old, same old” and see what happens AFTER Fidel Castro’s “no show”. If there is no loud public outcry from the Cuban people for change then expect more of the “same old, same old” NOTHING, for many months to come.
So, I predict that Fidel Castro will not even make a public appearance and he may not even make an appearance on TV. Time to keep things just the way they are in Cuba. That way there is no pressure on Raul or Fidel.
What do you think? Are Fidel and Raul happy with the way things are right now? Would an appearance by Fidel upset the relative calm in Cuba?