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Posted July 23, 2007 by publisher in Castro's Cuba

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I hate making predictions, especially about change in Cuba but these are three dates to watch coming up in Cuba.

July 26 2007, a national holiday in Cuba, will mark the one year anniversary of the date that Fidel Castro was last seen in public.

July 31, 2007 was the date Fidel Castro announces that he was going into the hospital.

August 13 2007 will be Fidel Castro’s 81st birthday and the country usually celebrates it.

Will Fidel Castro make a personal public appearance on any of these dates?

I say no.

He and Raul are “in the zone” right now. Everything seems to be quiet in Cuba right now. There is no massive unrest, no wide spread public outcry for change. Everyone knows nothing will change until absent President Fidel Castro is dead.

So, whether Fidel can actually make a personal public appearance is not the issue. The issue is now to maintain the “same old, same old” and see what happens AFTER Fidel Castro’s “no show”. If there is no loud public outcry from the Cuban people for change then expect more of the “same old, same old” NOTHING, for many months to come.

So, I predict that Fidel Castro will not even make a public appearance and he may not even make an appearance on TV. Time to keep things just the way they are in Cuba. That way there is no pressure on Raul or Fidel.

What do you think? Are Fidel and Raul happy with the way things are right now? Would an appearance by Fidel upset the relative calm in Cuba?

  1. Follow up post #1 added on July 25, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    This just released from Granma so it’s looks like I might be 1 for 1.

    Raul Castro to give Revolution Day address in Cuba

    Cuba announced today that interim leader Raul Castro will give this week’s Revolution Day address.

    The defense minister continues to assume his older brother Fidel’s previous roles, consolidating a caretaker rule that increasingly looks permanent.

    The announcement on the front page of the Communist Party daily Granma doused the few remaining hopes among Fidel Castro’s ardent supporters that he could make a surprise appearance as the nation’s leadership prepares to celebrate Revolution Day, the armed July 26, 1953, attack on the Moncada military barracks in eastern Cuba that launched the revolution.



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  2. Follow up post #2 added on July 25, 2007 by Mako with 172 total posts

    PREDICTION: Fidel Castro’s next public appearance will be at a funeral; sometime in 2008


  3. Follow up post #3 added on July 25, 2007 by Wajiro with 34 total posts

    I told you before he is dead ! I…............Hope .



    “My Friends are those who think alike”

  4. Follow up post #4 added on July 26, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Fidel will lead his last rally, horizontally.

    Wajiro, I agree that President Castro’s next appearance will be at his funeral.

    In 2008? I wonder if it will be sooner than that.



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  5. Follow up post #5 added on July 30, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Tomorrow will be the one year anniversary that Fidel Castro has been seen in public. I expect it to be a non-event, just the way the Castro brothers want it.

    And what about Fidel’s big birthday celebration on August 13? The Castro brothers will probably say “What birthday party celebration”.



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  6. Follow up post #6 added on July 30, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Peter,

    I read the article and it talked about him having that procedure in the past, not recently.

    If you have a link to an article that Fidel is CURRENTLY being fed by a tube, please share it with us otherwise I have to treat this as old news.



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  7. Follow up post #7 added on July 30, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Thanks for posting. I don’t read Spanish that well. So for us Yankees, can you translate this paragraph:

    Del mismo modo, según aseguran fuentes cercanas al dictador cubano, diversas complicaciones hicieron que Fidel Castro tenga que llevar, de modo permanente, una sonda nasogástrica. Ésta es una de las razones, apuntan, por las que el dictador no aparece en público ni deja que se le graben imágenes en movimiento. Tan sólo fotografías, cuidadosamente tratadas, en las que tras el chándal no se perciben formas algunas en el recto.

    Is it saying that he still has a nasal feeding tube or that he had a nasal feeding tube?

    Is the article saying that Fidel is not or cannot eat solid food?



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  8. Follow up post #8 added on July 30, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Peter,

    Thanks for your time. Although the Havana Journal doesn’t really qualify as an “English newspaper”, I think we have just given these details some ink.



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  9. Follow up post #9 added on July 31, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    I guess I am now 2 for 3 in my prediction. Not a word from Fidel on these two important days. Not even a “Reflection”?

    Since no one is saying anything about Fidel’s August 13 birthday celebration I think we can all expect more of the same from no show President Fidel Castro.

    How far away can the announcement of his death be? Fidel is getting quieter and quieter. Gee, kind of like bin Laden. We are led to believe he is still alive but no one asks “Where’s bin Laden?” or “Where’s Fidel?” anymore?

    I still hold to my prediction that the next time Fidel will be seen in public is at his funeral. I think I said that several months ago and nothing has given me a reason to change my mind yet.



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  10. Follow up post #10 added on August 01, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    By having Fidel fade away, there is no big event where anyone can point to and say that Fidel is out and Raul is in.

    They need to make Fidel’s death a non-event and so far they are doing a great job of that.



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  11. Follow up post #11 added on August 04, 2007 by manfredz with 464 total posts

    publisher:  I was going to post differring opinion on your last comment and then reread it… I think you’re right ....although his funeral will be a big event, his dying isn’t.  Now if only they could do something about his “inspirational essays”  ......


  12. Follow up post #12 added on August 10, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Three more days and I’ll be three for three. Not to brag but I think I have a pretty good read on Fidel Castro, the transition strategy and the Cuban propaganda machine.

    Since I have not read anything about the upcoming celebration for Fidel Castro’s birthday, I am now expecting it to be a complete non-event with only foreign press making reports that there is nothing to report.



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  13. Follow up post #13 added on August 10, 2007 by manfredz with 464 total posts

    if you’re prepared to give me 10000-1 or better odds I might bet you a dollar or two that he’ll show ....  anything less than that, no go.
    Seriously though, am watching closely how his birthday is reported, his non-appearance and what celebrations take place….  Think those will give us some clues how the government will continue to play the “he is recovering” card. Of course it could be an anticlimax with things continueing just like they have been.

    Have a cuba libre on me, pub.


  14. Follow up post #14 added on August 10, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    “Fidel who?” just could be the next slogan.

    They really need to have him fade away so his death does not bring the chaos that I mention.

    Maybe they have been reading the Havana Journal and realize that Fidel must fade away if they want Raul to be able to stay in power.



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  15. Follow up post #15 added on August 11, 2007 by RENE C

    I believe that by hiding Fidel’s death ,they are creatimg a political vacuum that sooner than latter will suck the dictatorship


  16. Follow up post #16 added on August 11, 2007 by manfredz with 464 total posts

    yr of course assuming that Fidel is dead, one i’m not prepared to make at this stage ...


  17. Follow up post #17 added on August 11, 2007 by RENE C

    Well people are not stupid if he doesn’t show up on his birthday (August 13),I believe that everybody will assume that he is dead!


  18. Follow up post #18 added on August 12, 2007 by manfredz with 464 total posts

    or that he is too ill to make an appearance .....
    at this stage I cant see any advantage in the government hiding the fact he is dead - a year ago yes, but now , no.


  19. Follow up post #19 added on August 12, 2007 by RENE C

    No I didn’t mean he died a year ago or so,I believe that he was senile and incapacitated for months and that he has died a few days ago.Althought he could had die a year ago and was incinerated and when convinient to them to show his ashes and tell the Cuban people that Fidel just died but that he requested as his last will ,that his ashes were to be spread all over Cuba or something like that.Just remember that they cremated Vilma Espin a few weeks ago…maybe a precedent..who knows!


  20. Follow up post #20 added on August 12, 2007 by Wajiro with 34 total posts

    Lenin’s death was kept a secret for a month or two.
    Why not another record for el Comediante ?



    “My Friends are those who think alike”

  21. Follow up post #21 added on August 13, 2007 by Wajiro with 34 total posts

    Reports in the Reforma.com a Mexican Newspaper that claims to have conversation with Fidel’s family members have learned that Castro is very very Ill, he has develop septicemia and doesn’t speak but through hand signs tells others not to let anyone see him.

    Look for this title at Reforma.com

    1.  13-Ago-07. Internacional.
    Temen por salud de Fidel



    “My Friends are those who think alike”

  22. Follow up post #22 added on August 13, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    I see the photo of Castro but not the article you mention. Can you paste in the web address of the page where you found the information?

    Thanks.



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  23. Follow up post #23 added on August 13, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Wajiro

    I got it but it is password protected. Perhaps you can paste in some of the text (and in English if possible) and give credit to Reforma?



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  24. Follow up post #24 added on August 13, 2007 by Wajiro with 34 total posts

    Main Subject: Fidel’s family worried.
    ” Fidel Castro has had a set back on his health, He is very Fragile and has lost all the weight he had gained”
    Sources the Newspaper claims are Fidel’s relatives.
    “He has never left the CIMEQ Hospital, he refuses to walk or is unable to”
    He can’t eat and doctors are working over time to try and keep his infection down, in other words he is septic”

    This is very much in accord with the reports PP has posted from Nueva Accion and The Spain’s Newspaper that broke this news a few weeks ago.

    This also proves he is not the writer of reflections of El Comandante that are published in the communist Newspaper Granma”



    “My Friends are those who think alike”

  25. Follow up post #25 added on August 13, 2007 by Wajiro with 34 total posts

    The Above exerts are from Reforma.com ,Mexico City Mexico ,Todays edition
    Under the article “TEMEN POR LA SALUD DE FIDEL ”



    “My Friends are those who think alike”

  26. Follow up post #26 added on August 13, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    We haven’t seen any Reflections lately. Sounds like he took a turn for the worst in the past few days but once again we have to wait for a concrete source.



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  27. Follow up post #27 added on August 15, 2007 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    No Fidel. No Chavez. No Raul. No celebration. No call for regime change from George Bush.

    What a boring birthday for Fidel.

    Fidel has now successfully faded away and has executed a smooth transition of power to Raul.

    Without the “big bang” of change, even the United States didn’t even notice.

    My next prediction (sadly) is that Fidel’s Castro’s death will be a non-event.



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