I have been following the blogs and news articles and been thinking about the past several months of Fidel’s Reflections and lack of interest in Cuban politics (and the Cuban people) and am now comfortable to make the prediction that FIDEL CASTRO WILL NOT BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF CUBA on January 20 2008.
This article below as seen at Cubapolidata is a great summary of the recent comments by officials close to Fidel and certainly gives the impression that Fidel can’t or won’t be a candidate for President of Cuba and there is this article with more information about the importance of December 2.
I said a long time ago that the best thing for Raul would be a page 3 death announcement of Fidel in Granma and not electing Fidel as President would allow Raul to ease into the job. Sure, while Fidel is alive he will still have icon power and Raul’s hands may still be tied but the Cuban people probably understand that, not that they accept it though.
I just have a gut feeling that Fidel will not be a candidate for President. I can’t predict every detail of how he this will be or who will say what and when but the end result in my opinion is that Fidel will not be President of Cuba in less than two months from now and we might find out as early as tomorrow.
So, I think you heard it here first. The last days of Fidel’s Presidency are near.
November’s Latell Report as follows:
Fidel Castro’s nearly forty-nine year tenure as Cuba’s de facto and constitutional head of state and government may finally be drawing to a close. National Assembly president Ricardo Alarcon told reporters in Quito in October that Castro may not “be available” to serve another five- year term as president of the Council of State.
Occupying that office since it was created in 1976 under Cuba’s new socialist constitution, Castro has served as head of state while simultaneously presiding as head of government in the role of president of the council of ministers. But to be re-elected for another five-year term he would first have to be chosen as a provincial delegate in regime-controlled elections. Last week Raul Castro issued a cursory announcement that delegates to the provincial assemblies and deputies to the national assembly will be chosen on January 20, 2008. Alarcon seems to be suggesting that Castro will not be a candidate that day, and therefore will be ineligible to continue next year as Cuba’s president.
The assembly president’s remarks stand in sharp contrast to what he has said in the past. Last March, for example, he told a wire service reporter that Castro will be “in perfect shape to run for re-election. I would nominate him. I am sure he will be in perfect shape to continue handling his responsibilities.” This suggests that between March and October Castro’s health, and perhaps his cognitive abilities, have further deteriorated. That would be consistent with rumors that he underwent another life-threatening surgery during the period. Castro has not appeared in public in sixteen months and his most recent taped television interview with a Cuban reporter several months ago revealed him in an obviously handicapped state.