On July 23, I predicted that Fidel Castro would not make a public appearance on July 26, July 31 or August 13. I was right on all counts.
Raul gave a speech (seemingly because he had to and not because he wanted to) on July 26. July 31 came and went with little US media attention other than “wrap up” stories like “A year without Fidel” or some other non-news story.
Fidel’s birthday of August 13 came and went too. No Fidel. No Raul. No George Bush calling for change. No visit from Chavez. No forced celebration. Nothing but some fireworks over the harbor.
So, Fidel et al have now orchestrated and executed the perfect smooth transition and hardly anyone has noticed.
I predict Raul will retain the term of “interim” President thus giving him a “Don’t blame me, I’m only the interim President” excuse as to why he is not making changes. Everyone “knows” that Raul cannot make any changes while Fidel is alive because Fidel sees and approves everything, right?
I predict that Fidel Castro’s death will be a non-event.
The Cuban government will down play it saying that Fidel’s vision still guides us or some crap like that.
George Bush is a lame duck with other things on his mind and he has no political capital to try to stir things up in Cuba so the US government will unfortunately care little about the announcement of Fidel’s death too.
There will be no “starting gun” sending Cubans and Cuban Americans to the Straits of Florida.
There will be no mass influx of journalists or foreign leaders coming to Cuba to cover the funeral.
There will be no celebrations or even funeral due to the chance that the crowds might get out of control.
So, sadly, I predict that Fidel Castro’s death might just show up on page 3 of Granma and just another day in Cuba. Unfortunately that will be checkmate from the brilliant Dictator Fidel Castro.
If I am right, then I guess I have to back away from my other prediction *sticky* Why there might be chaos after Fidel Castro’s death - prediction.