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Posted January 25, 2006 by YoungCuban in Castro's Cuba

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Cuba, Back To The Future

Many have touched on this subject in the past and have made their own conclusions on what Cuba’s future will be like once Castro’s days on earth are no longer.
What does Cuba’s future hold?
During my visits to Cuba, I always took the time to speak openly with the Cuban people (about 700 interviewed) ,some being strong Revolution supporters, that range from as young as 18 to as old as 90.
But, to best answer my questions,I went directly to an honest, un fearful source, my own family.
While my eyes can see the strong family unity found within my family, as most families are in Cuba, I sit in amazement to hear their wide range of opinions of Cuba (living) yesterday, today and tomorrow.
My Aunt, for instance, is a strong supporter of the Cuban revolution, however, she does recognize the bad and the ugly areas of the revolution, yet her views of the revolution cannot be changed, as she would say “Sacrifice for what you believe in has no length of time”.
With that in mind I turn to the younger members of my family for their thoughts and of course as expected the sometime over emotional Cubanismo of the youth comes out with tones of anger.
Nike,Nitendo,Walkman’s and DVD’s are the main subject when speaking to the youth of Cuba, they simply want more or have the urge for more, as any human may want.
Dinner time is always a great place for starting a provocative conversation about Cuba, it’s past and potential future, so I ease in the subject slowly without giving the “viejas” elders a heart attack, with no surprise, the conversation turns heated in a second with the elders and the youth members going at it harder then a Ali vs Frazier fight, and I the great instigator, sit quietly enjoying my meal, but taking mental notes.
The end result has always been the same during my independent study from interviewing nearly 700 Cuban’s and my own family members, while on one hand,one can find the elder and even many of the youth of being strong supporters of the revolution, and of course in the other hand there are those who blast the style of the Cuban government.
But, what I find the most interesting of all,is the fact, that out of the nearly 700 Cuban’s I spoke to, all but 9, would not mind a U.S. intervention of Cuba’s soil, for the majority whether they agree with the revolution or not, do agree on one major issue, that they’d would never want the U.S. to occupy Cuba nor try to govern the island or try to place the U.S. system upon Cuba.
“We don’t want Yankees here” is the basic frame of thought.
All but the 9 that are for U.S. intervention, strongly made it clear,if a U.S. intervention was to one day happen, that they themselves as average Cuban citizens would rise against the U.S. forces, even if it is with sticks and stones.
Another interesting part of the interviews was the fact that ALL agreed if Fidel was to die soon, that Cuba would become a mad house, ALL, including the 9 who support a U.S. intervention.
My personal feelings about the future of Cuba is unclear, but I do believe that “civil war” could be possible, as well as major loss of Cuban lives if the U.S. was to ever invade Cuba (with
or without Castro alive)
I also have come to the conclusion that many Cuban exile leaders (like the Balarts)or Cuban figures (like Bacardi) now living in the U.S. would not be welcomed back to Cuba, at least for a very,very long time.
Opinions please.

  1. Follow up post #1 added on January 26, 2006 by publisher with 3905 total posts

    Always great insight from YoungCuban.

    I was a little unclear on the 700 vs 9 but see just 9 who support intervention.

    The future of Cuba? Man, we could have asked the same question in 1963 or 1973 or 1983 or 1993 or even 2003. So, my prediction for the future of Cuba??? No change.

    Let’ ask again in 2013.

    Seriously, I guess it really depends how Fidel Castro leaves power. Does he have a succession plan besides leaving everything to Raul? Is everyone down the line 100% loyal to La Revolucion?

    Who will come in to save the day? The young communists? Market reforms while maintaining socialism? The US with venture capital and Jimmy Carter? Maybe Venezuela and Hugo Chavez will sweep in to save La Revolocion?

    Unfortunately I’m afraid that there will be chaos…happiness and sadness and revolt and counter revolt. That messy situation will probably lead to bad military decisions which could fuel fires. Then there could be real fires that rage out of control. With all those old buildings in Havana, no sprinkler systems and age, they could burn out of control.

    I just don’t see a peaceful transition unless Fidel leaves the scene slowly while publicly giving power away. Maybe he is starting that now with the recent talk about how La Revolucion will have to live on without him.

    Cuba consulting services

  2. Follow up post #2 added on January 26, 2006 by YoungCuban with 409 total posts

    I feel the answers lie within the Cuban citizens themselves,how they would react and if they will challenge the system for change?

    Nonetheless,will be interesting to watch.

  3. Follow up post #3 added on January 26, 2006 by ElaineMiami

    I agree that the Balarts & the Bacardis would not be welcomed back.  At least this was my impression several years ago when I visited Cuba and I saw an outright disdain towards these old Cuban families.  I can only go by what I learned from my Cuban family there, and that is that despite the mistakes made in the revolution, they defend it and do not want the U.S. meddling in their affairs.  They may want more things like t.v.’ and computers, but not if it means giving up free education and healthcare.  The media in Miami distorts the truth in a very effective manner.  When I recently told someone I had visited Cuba several years ago, her response was, “Oh my God, weren’t you AFRAID?”  And this is overall what people think of Cuba, that it’ some backwards country that jails people for no reason at all.  It’ this negative programming in Miami that continues to fuel antagonism towards Cuba, of course driven by leaders like Balart and Ros-Lehtinen.  As people become educated about the truths, their support for the exile leaders will diminish, and thus the White House will be less pressured to continuously antagonize Cuba.  The root of the problems are buried in the exile community, particularly Miami.  Luckily, the new generation of Cubans are beginning to see things differently.

  4. Follow up post #4 added on January 26, 2006 by jesusp with 246 total posts

    I’m optimistic about the future, I do not see chaos in the absence of Fidel, the people in positions of leadership, including Raul, will have to address the need for some changes and a more tolerant view of different opinions. Socialism will be maintained but some much needed changes in economic policy reflecting a more open market approach will take place. A change in Washington is also in the future, I believe the American people are beginning to see past all the lies of this Administration and that alone will have a tremendous impact in the future of Cuba.

  5. Follow up post #5 added on January 26, 2006 by ElaineMiami

    I do share in the optimism and that the Cuban people can decide for themselves what direction their country will take.  I can see them growing more tolerant of differing opinions, but this is also tied to the hostility on the part of the exiles, be it physical aggression as in flying into Cuban airspace or planting bombs in hotels, or the psychological kind with broadcasts of Radio Marti, etc. I have no doubt that things will turn for the better in Cuba once these hardline exiles back off.

  6. Follow up post #6 added on February 02, 2006 by ROLO

    Many scenarios are possible,indeed,But what I know for sure
    is with chaos or without it,the shift gears for the better is
      undeniable,History will come and will cut and will shape the “legacy’of the
      Revolution,many differents and nasty smells are coming out,Ral
      it seems to me,will have time just for one drunk more,it seems
      to be that in any case of leaving of FC,it would be like a
      An earthquaque under the water,wheather that is leading to
      a Sunami,nobody knows at this moment,however the real scenario
      is coming and who has the eyes to see,for sure it will see.

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