I think that a transition from a Castro led administration to a post Castro led administration is already well under way.

Castro and his government are certainly not stupid, they have been involved in transitional planning for some time. The remarks from George Bush regarding calls for democracy in Cuba will fall in deaf ears, the Cuban government have every right to run their country how they see fit, making any incremental adjustments their way, in their own style and when they see fit to. They will definately not be preached to by the Americans or anyone else. We all know that the embargo is a failure, in fact the embargo has only strenghtened the Cuban government position. It has made their will stronger, they have simply pulled rank in the face of a common economic aggressor.

It is the Cuban people who have suffered as a result of the embargo, if it comes down to who will blink first after Castro has stepped back from the front line it will be the Americans, if they are as democratic as they profess then they should make the first move. The Cuban government have some talented young blood who will take up the reigns and move the country forward whilst maintaining the ideals of the hard fought revolution. Carlos Lage, Ricard Alarcon and Felipe Perez Roque are some of the experienced younger members charged with bringing the revolution forward. They are supported by the old guard, Raul Castro, Juan Almeida and General Abelardo Colome Ibarra. Fidel Castro will remain figure head and elder statesman…

Cuba has carved itself a unique position on the world stage, they will not just simply capitulate at the whim of the so called champions of democracy.

The Cuban government will find its own way but I’m just not sure it will be a peaceful transition or even involve any of the players you suggest. Once Fidel dies, all bets are off.

Also, Alarcon is 75 I think. He is not the younger generation although he is more worldly and pragmatic in his thinking so that may seem like a “younger” attitude since there isn’t much of that in the current Castro government.

Hi

I take your point about Alarcon, he is I think 70, no spring chicken for sure. My point was that the cuban goverment is making way for Fidel to take a back seat as far as a hands on approach goes to governing the country. There are younger guys like Lage who will carry the baton forward but with some reforms, especially when it comes to economics and trade.

I don’t buy into the theory that there will be chaos after Castro, some factions of America would like this scenario but I think we are seeing an evolving administration which has firstly to ensure that the economy, with or without the embargo can run as efficiently as is possible. This means building new trade avenues, maximising the raw resources that Cuba has at it’s disposal, which are considerable and demonstrating to the Cuban people that they they are prepared to make some concessions and will seek to implement some reforms leading to increased liberalisation.

It’s not through choice that the government are doing this but by the circumstances in which they find themselves. By making small and in my view overdue adjustments to the apparatus it will act as a valve allowing a gradual transition in a controlled and careful manner. The important thing for the government is that they hold onto their ideals and values. In order to achieve this they will have to show their people that there is light at the end of the tunnel. It can be done if it’s done right, but they only get the one chance, caution is the byword.