I hate making predictions, especially about change in Cuba but these are three dates to watch coming up in Cuba.

July 26 2007, a national holiday in Cuba, will mark the one year anniversary of the date that Fidel Castro was last seen in public.

July 31, 2007 was the date Fidel Castro announces that he was going into the hospital.

August 13 2007 will be Fidel Castro’s 81st birthday and the country usually celebrates it.

Will Fidel Castro make a personal public appearance on any of these dates?

I say no.

He and Raul are “in the zone” right now. Nothing seems to be changing so there is no unrest, no public outcry for change. Everyone knows nothing will change until absent President Fidel Castro is dead.

So, whether Fidel can actually make a personal public appearance is not the issue. The issue is now to maintain the “same old, same old” and see what happens. If there is no loud public outcry from the Cuban people for change then expect more of the “same old, same old” NOTHING, for many months to come.

Sure, Raul will make little changes and say that these things take time but the reality of daily life in Cuba will not change and another day goes by. Tomorrow is the same as today.

So, I predict that Fidel Castro will not even make a public appearance and he may not even make an appearance on TV. Time to keep things just the way they are in Cuba. That way there is no pressure on Raul or Fidel.

Peter, do you have a link to that news story? Is it a credible source?

Being feed through the nose you would think that would mean days not months. His last “Reflection” was only last week I think.

Any information public or private would be greatly appreciated.

Have a great trip and be safe.

Peter, I’ll leave this post up here even though I can’t find the news story you mention. I don’t like to have unconfirmed information here but you are a credible source so I’ll leave it.

I did find this story interesting, penned by the man himself…

Fidel Castro: 2 missing Cuba boxers may have defected

I read this story earlier today but the fact that it has been confirmed is odd. What is even more odd is that it was confirmed by Fidel Castro. “Proof” that he is doing just fine?

No show President Casto is not seen again.

How far away can the announcement of his death be? Fidel is getting quieter and quieter. Gee, kind of like bin Laden. We are led to believe he is still alive but no one asks “Where’s bin Laden?” or “Where’s Fidel?” anymore?

I still hold to my prediction that the next time Fidel will be seen in public is at his funeral. I think I said that several months ago and nothing has given me a reason to change my mind yet.

think the main reason cuban people havent been screaming for change in these times is that they are also patiently waiting for fidel to pass away fearing any other action could lead to turmoil.  Lets assume the disillusionment started in 1960 - they’ve been waiting for 47 years - another few months won’t hurt.

Everyone must be walking on egg shells knowing that the whole place could turn to shit and Raul probably knows that too.

that is very true.  Assume also that a great many people both leaders and common folk realize that a great thing for cuba can happen soon if the cards are played right, and at same time realizing a great tragedy can happen if they’re not.

Peter,

Lots of little pieces put together seem to make sense. You have your finger on the pulse of Cuba and we appreciate the fact that you share it with us.

Keep us posted.

If this happens it would be something that I never thought about. Does a coop make sense to you? Who would these people be? Fidelistas or military leaders influenced by the promise of US support?

All due respect, I don’t really invest any stock in comments about Fidel’s health, or the state of the government, or what Raul is going to do.  We’d hear about these things in the news before we heard about them on some message board.

The bottom line, no one here will know anything about Fidel’s status unless the Cuban government actually comes out and says that he passed away, and that’s even assuming that they choose to do so.  No one knows what Raul will do until he actually does it.  Everything is complete speculation at this point.

There is a lot up in the air. If we don’t hear of some announcement by Monday, I will paint this latest round of speculation about Fidel’s death as simply another round of rumors which would be very unfortunate.

You may see some “holes” in this thread and others.

Peter Perez has been permanently banned from the Havana Journal for inappropriate behavior. By default, all his posts have been removed.